Obama Wins Nomination

Just an hour before polls closed in South Dakota, a storm a superdelegates flew to Obama, brining him just 4 delegates short of the nomination.

Then South Dakota closed. Instantly, it was projected he would win at least 5 delegates from the state, putting him over the top. Then came Montana, where he is winning handily.

For the first time in US history, a black man is the presidential nominee of a major party.

And now the pressure grows even greater for Obama to put Clinton on the ticket as VP. It could unite the party and guarantee a win in November. However, there is a lot of perceived bad blood between the two candidates, and Clinton, coming from a political dynasty, doesn't fit well with Obama's changes message.

South Dakota
With 94% of the precincts reporting
Clinton - 50,911 votes - 56%
Obama - 40,676 votes - 44%

Montana
With 26% of the precincts reporting
Clinton - 30,338 votes - 39%
Obama - 45,961 votes - 59%

Clinton Wins Puerto Rico in a Landslide

Hillary Clinton handily beat Barack Obama today in Puerto Rico, and now is claiming to have a clear lead in the popular vote.

With 98% of the precincts reporting:
Clinton - 257,331 votes - 68%
Obama - 118,972 votes - 32%

She beat him in every demographic, including ones he normally wins, such as educated, younger, and richer voters.

And with this huge victory, she will claim about 40 of Puerto Rico's delegates, while he will pick up about 15.

Now she is also claiming to be clearly ahead in the popular vote. She has been claiming to be ahead here before, but now she says that it's clear. She's using this argument to try and appeal to superdelegates to back her.

However, her count doesn't include caucus votes (her reasoning be that they don't release those votes) and she also doesn't give Obama any of the about 240,000 votes that were cast for "uncommitted". If you estimate the caucus votes, and give him those 240,000 votes, then he is actually ahead in the popular vote.

Obama is saying that this will end on Wednesday, the day after the final 2 primaries. There are several rumors that most of the uncommitted superdelegates have in fact made up their mind, they are just waiting for the whole process to finish before they announce their support. He says that he will pick up enough superdelegates on Wednesday that will give him the nomination when combined with the about 20 or so delegates he is expected to pick up on Tuesday.

DNC Rules Committee Reaches Decision

The DNC Rules Committee met today to try and reach a resolution to Florida and Michigan. They entertained 3 motions.

The first would seat all the Florida delegations, both pledged and unpledged, giving them each 1 full vote.

The motion failed 12-15

The second would seat the full delegations, both pledged and unpledged, giving them each 1/2 vote. It would also apportion the delegates as such:

Hillary Clinton would get 104 delegates, or 52.5 votes.
John Edwards would get 13 delegates, or 6.5 votes.
Barack Obama would get 67 delegates, or 33.5 votes.

The motion passed 27-0

The third motion was regarding Michigan, it would seat the full delegations, both pledged and unpledged, giving them each 1/2 vote. It would also apportion the delegates as such:

Hillary Clinton would get 69 delegates, or 34.5 votes.
Barack Obama would get 59 delegates, or 29.5 votes.

The motion passed 19-8

All would seem well, however, Hillary Clinton has said that she reserves the right to bring this to the DNC Credentials Committee, which won't be meeting until July. Most would hope that she will not do that, though. If she does, then there is a very good chance that this will go to the Convention in Denver, which will almost ensure John McCain will win the general election.

For the time being, the goalpost for the nomination has moved, the new magic number is 2,118, up from 2,026. Here are the current delegate estimates:

Hillary Clinton: 1,877 delegates; 241 needed to nominate
Barack Obama: 2,050 delegates; 68 needed to nominate

On the primary calendar, Puerto Rico, with 55 delegates, holds it's primary tomorrow. Then comes Montana, with 16 delegates, and South Dakota, with 15, on Tuesday.

Clinton is leading in Puerto Rico by about 20 points, though the poll was conducted over a 2 week period, so there's a chance those numbers don't reflect the current situation. Obama is leading in Montana by about 20 points, with no polls from South Dakota.

West Virginia held it's primary today, and as expected, Hillary Clinton won big.

With 73% of the Precincts Reporting:
Clinton - 172,727 votes - 66%
Obama - 69,867 votes - 27%

This state was built for her, old, white, blue-collar. But with only 28 delegates at stake, it won't mean much. Obama leads Clinton 1,881 to 1,713, with only about 200 pledged delegates left to win.

In similar news, Obama took the lead in total superdelegates. Clinton lead in that column by more than 100 in January, and that lead has slowly diminished. He now leads in all areas, delegates, both pledged and super, states won, and popular vote.

With that much against, why won't Hillary quit? Well, she has about 16 million supporters, all of whom she promised to at least see out the primary season. Those 16 million are also why nobody is trying to push her out of the race. They can't be seen trying to push her out, or else they may alienate her supporters come November, which would kill the Democrats chances for the White House.

Another reason some say she won't quit is she keeps hoping something will happen that will cause Obama's campaign to implode. But after both Wright incidents, that's not very likely. Another theory is she genuinely believes she is the better candidate.

And then there's the dream ticket theory. Some say that if she stays in this long enough, she'll divide the party enough to force Obama to put her on the Ticket. Obviously she'll deny that, and Obama won't talk much about running mates right now. Yet the theory is out there.

You'll also notice that she has toned down her attacks on Obama since last Tuesday. She's starting to realize that the odds are getting longer, and she needs to start planting the seeds for 2012. If she stays this negative, she might harm Obama's chances of winning the general election. And if the party thinks she's the reason the Democrats get lose the White House for another 4 years, she'll never be able to run for President again.

And then there's Florida and Michigan. The DNC's Rules Committee meets on May 31st to decide the fate of their delegates. Most believe they will seat the delegates in some fashion, but they cannot just ignore them entirely, or else they will lose all chances of carrying those states come November. Then there's the problem that accepting those delegates raises the number needed for the nomination from 2,025 to 2,209. Possibly giving Hillary enough room to keep fighting till the convention.

And speaking of that, she has said that we will have a nominee on June 15th. Many see that as the day she will drop out, but only time will tell.

Next up on the primary docket: Oregon and Kentucky, 1 week from today.

Clinton is expected to win Kentucky by a fair margin, and Obama is expected to take Oregon by a decent margin as well.

Indiana, North Carolina Results

North Carolina
With 87% of the precincts reporting:
Obama - 798,048 votes - 56%
Clinton - 590,644 votes - 42%

Indiana
With 86% of the precincts reporting:
Obama - 516,713 votes - 48%
Clinton - 557,166 votes - 52%

Obama has won big in North Carolina, but Indiana is still way too close to call. Everyone is waiting on Lake County, which can tip the votes into Obama's favor. THe problem is they have said they won't start counting ballots until all their absentee ballots are in, which could extend the counting several hours.

Obama Wins Guam by 7 Votes

Little known to most, Guam held it's caucuses today. Although called a caucus, it's more like a primary.

With all 21 precincts reporting, Obama finished with 2,264 votes (50.1%). Hillary Clinton got 2,257 votes (49.9%).

Meaning they each win 4 of the territory's 8 delegates, though each only holds half a vote.

As a way to reach out to far different people, both pledged various reforms for the territory, such as the ability to vote for president, lifting their cap on Medicaid, and their endorsement of the Bill before Congress that will pay the territory $120 million as reparations from Japan's occupation of Guam during WWII.

The next contests are Tuesday, with Indiana and North Carolina. Indiana is a very tight race, while Obama is expected to win North Carolina due to demographic, which is similar to that of South Carolina and Virgina, both states Obama has won.

Pennsylvania Results

With 48% of the precincts reporting:
Clinton - 528,080 votes, 54%
Obama - 444,428 votes, 46%

She's expected to win, but by how much is now the question. 6 weeks ago she was ahead in polls by 25+ points, now the latest polls showed her only about 5 points ahead.

If Obama wants to win (or at least come very close), he needs huge support in southeastern PA. Western PA is pretty rural, full of working class voters, where Clinton's support is strong.

And now CNN is projecting Clinton to win Pennsylvania.

Obama Speech

This is the speech Barack Obama made yesterday in Philadelphia.

Michigan Agrees to New Primary

Michigan Democrats tentatively agreed on a plan to hold a new primary on June 3rd. The cost would be covered by the state, but later reimbursed by the Democratic National Committee.

In order to vote, one must identify as a Democrat, and show proof that they did not vote in the January Republican primary. This is a first for Michigan, as voters normally don't need to align with a party at the primary.

Florida is still standing by it's guns, telling the DNC to seat it's delegates and being opposed to any revote.

88 days are left until all contests must be concluded.

Florida, Michigan Re-Do Troubles

Since the governors of Florida and Michigan came to the Democratic national Committee last week, telling them to seat their delegates, controversy has raged about what to do about the two states.

Many want to just hold a new election, but that costs money, approximately $20 million in Florida and $10 million in Michigan. Both the states and the DNC has said they refuse to pay for that.

Another issue is starting to rear it's head. By DNC rules, all contests must be finished by June 10th. The Florida Secretary of State has said it would take 90 days since the governor signed off to hold a primary.

June 10th is 92 days away.

Michigan also has a state law that forbids holding a second primary.

Another option that was showing promise was a mail-in vote. Oregon is the only state to do all voting by mail-in ballot. That option would only cost about $6 million in each state. And Michigan was talking to the DNC about splitting that cost.

The Florida House refused to allow a mail-in vote. Saying:

"Our House delegation is opposed to a mail-in campaign or any redo of any kind"

Which leaves only one option in Florida, award the 210 delegates as they were on January 29th. No candidate campaigned in Florida, but Sen. Clinton held a few last-minute fund-raisers.

She won the state with 50% of the vote to Obama's 40%. She also won Michigan with 50% of the vote. 33% chose "Uncommitted" as all major candidates, except Clinton, removed their names from the Michigan ballot in protest to the early primary.

It's hard to say whether Obama would have done any better in Florida, the state having such a large Latino population. Factored in with Obama's loose Cuba policy, and he probably would end up doing worse.

Michigan is a different story, however. Clinton was the only name on the ballot, and they cannot fairly award those delegates to her. With state law prohibiting a new primary of any kind, the only option is a caucus.

Sen. Obama has said that he is worried about a mail-in caucus, saying:

"I think there are some concerns in terms of making sure that whatever we do is fair and that votes are properly counted and the logistics make sense"

A normal caucus would be much cheaper than the $10 million primary, but it would still take time to set-up.

And with the next contest, Pennsylvania, still 6 weeks away; this will be the only major story in the headlines for a long time.

Mississippi/Texas

Mississippi is currently counting it's votes.

Barack Obama and John McCain are both predicted to win the state.

With 100% reporting for the Democrats, Obama leads 61% to 37% and holds about 256,000 votes. Clinton trails by 100,000 votes.

With the same number of precincts reporting for the GOP, McCain has 113,000 votes to Huckabee's 18,000.

Mississippi has 40 Democratic delegates and 39 Republican ones. 33 Democratic delegates are tied to the primary, while 7 are Superdelegates. 36 of the GOP delegates are pledged, while the other 3 are unpledged.

In other news, the delegates for the March 4th Democratic caucuses in Texas have been awarded. Obama gained 38, while Clinton only won 29.

Welcome!

Welcome to ePoliticker, a new political blog. Originally spawned from posting political analysis on my history teacher's blog, I have decided to bring it to it's own blog.

Don't worry Carlisle, I'll still post it on your blog :P