Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Obama Wins Nomination

Just an hour before polls closed in South Dakota, a storm a superdelegates flew to Obama, brining him just 4 delegates short of the nomination.

Then South Dakota closed. Instantly, it was projected he would win at least 5 delegates from the state, putting him over the top. Then came Montana, where he is winning handily.

For the first time in US history, a black man is the presidential nominee of a major party.

And now the pressure grows even greater for Obama to put Clinton on the ticket as VP. It could unite the party and guarantee a win in November. However, there is a lot of perceived bad blood between the two candidates, and Clinton, coming from a political dynasty, doesn't fit well with Obama's changes message.

South Dakota
With 94% of the precincts reporting
Clinton - 50,911 votes - 56%
Obama - 40,676 votes - 44%

Montana
With 26% of the precincts reporting
Clinton - 30,338 votes - 39%
Obama - 45,961 votes - 59%

Sunday, June 1, 2008

Clinton Wins Puerto Rico in a Landslide

Hillary Clinton handily beat Barack Obama today in Puerto Rico, and now is claiming to have a clear lead in the popular vote.

With 98% of the precincts reporting:
Clinton - 257,331 votes - 68%
Obama - 118,972 votes - 32%

She beat him in every demographic, including ones he normally wins, such as educated, younger, and richer voters.

And with this huge victory, she will claim about 40 of Puerto Rico's delegates, while he will pick up about 15.

Now she is also claiming to be clearly ahead in the popular vote. She has been claiming to be ahead here before, but now she says that it's clear. She's using this argument to try and appeal to superdelegates to back her.

However, her count doesn't include caucus votes (her reasoning be that they don't release those votes) and she also doesn't give Obama any of the about 240,000 votes that were cast for "uncommitted". If you estimate the caucus votes, and give him those 240,000 votes, then he is actually ahead in the popular vote.

Obama is saying that this will end on Wednesday, the day after the final 2 primaries. There are several rumors that most of the uncommitted superdelegates have in fact made up their mind, they are just waiting for the whole process to finish before they announce their support. He says that he will pick up enough superdelegates on Wednesday that will give him the nomination when combined with the about 20 or so delegates he is expected to pick up on Tuesday.